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1–19. Grabel, I. (2003a), ‘Averting crisis: Assessing measures to manage financial integration in emerging economies’, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 27(3), pp. 317–36. Ilene Grabel 37 Grabel, I. ), Rethinking Development Economics, London: Anthem Press, pp. 325–45. Grabel, I. (2004), ‘Trip wires and speed bumps: Managing financial risks and reducing the potential for financial crises in developing economies’, G-24 Discussion Paper No. 33, New York and Geneva: United Nations. Grabel, I. (2007), ‘Policy coherence or conformance?
McKinnon, R. (1973), Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution. McKinnon, R. (1989), ‘Macroeconomic instability and moral hazard in banking in a liberalizing economy’, in P. Brock, M. Connolly and C. Gonzalez-Vega (eds), Latin American Debt and Adjustment, New York: Praeger, pp. 99–111. 38 Financial Systems and Economic Development in the 21st Century McKinnon, R. (1991), The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
In the game of musical chairs, no one wants to be the last one left standing, as Keynes noted long ago. We simply cannot predict with certainty whether agents will respond to the information provided by predictors in a market-destabilizing or -stabilizing manner. , the collapse of the firm, Lehman Brothers), investor panic seems a likely response to warnings of dire circumstances ahead. ), predictors have indeterminate effects on macroeconomic stability. ” In short, the enhanced credibility of a predictor may subvert it.